DURHAM – Optimism among financial executives has climbed to record levels, driving in part by still-pending tax law changes in Congress, says the latest Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey. However, the survey also finds that financial executives are concerned about an increasing difficulty to recruit and retain qualified workers.
Tracking CFO optimism
“The extremely high level of business optimism is tied to the long-awaited corporate tax reform currently moving through Congress,” says John Graham, the finance professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business who is director of the survey.
“More broadly, optimism is up around the world. Our analysis of past results shows the CFO Optimism Index is an accurate predictor of future economic growth and hiring; therefore, 2018 looks to be a very promising year for the world economy.”
More than 800 CFOs from around the world participated in the survey, which ended Dec. 8. Duke has conducted the survey for more than 21 years.
The optimism in the Duke survey is very similar to those found by the American Institute for Certified Public Accountants in its most recent report.
CFO’s positive outlook lifted the Duke Optimism Index to 69 with 100 being the maximum score.
Among those executives who responded after the U.S. Senate passed the tax legislation the score soared to 73. Duke says that’s the “highest U.S. optimism ever recorded in the the history of the survey.”
Tight labor market
With unemployment rates already under 5 percent, CFOs are worried that finding and keeping workers will become harder.
Some 43 percent of CFOs say the labor situation is a top concern – a two-decade high in the survey.
“The labor market continues to tighten,” said Chris Schmidt, senior editor at CFO Research.
“Firms are finding it harder to hire qualified employees with the skill sets they seek. There are indications of shortages of both management talent and skilled jobs such as diesel mechanics, tech engineers, and sales and service positions.”
