RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK – As thought leaders from around North Carolina gather in Raleigh for the Emerging Issues forum on Monday and Tuesday, a new study highlights concerns expressed at the forum about education and children’s futures under the theme “kidonomics.”

The report by RTI International found that 28 percent of students enrolled in ninth grade in 2009 had not yet enrolled in a trade school or college by February 2016—six-and-a-half years later. Given the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, this study indicates that as many as 6.3 million 20–24 year-olds may have elected not to pursue post=secondary education.

And this decision has economic repercussions for individuals and for communities.

“Ninth-graders who had not entered any type of post-secondary education were finding life difficult in today’s economy,” said Alexandria Walton Radford, Ph.D., the report’s co-author and director of RTI’s Center for Postsecondary Education.

The study included nearly 20,000 students that were enrolled in ninth-grade in 2009 across the nation and was conducted by the U.S. Department of Education. The data revealed through the longitudinal study provides key insights on educational and economic outcomes experienced by these young adults, said Walton Radford, including high school completion rates, post-secondary enrollment, workforce experiences, and family financial support.

Education, income in South

The study’s findings support similar data gathered by another research firm.

“Educational attainment has long been the key to economic mobility in the South,” said Richard Hart, communications director at MDC, a Durham nonprofit that publishes The State of the South reports. “That’s clearly seen in the earnings of Southerners at different levels of education.”

According to MDC’s data from the 2017 State of the South Report, the median annual income of workers in North Carolina that have completed only high school is $26,059. For those with an Associate’s Degree or some college coursework completed, the median is about $31,012 per year. The median yearly income for those who earn a B.A. is $45,377.

“The same kind of increases are seen in every Southern state,” said Hart.

MDC State of South findings

Those who do not enter some form of post-secondary education—like the 28 percent involved in the U.S. Department of Education study—report a range of challenges experienced as a result. Thirty-nine percent of the ninth graders that had not enrolled in post-secondary education and were employed in February 2016 reported an annual income of less than $10,000 during the 2015 calendar year. The Federal Poverty Level in the United States is $12,060 for individuals.

“Smart people refuse to be poor.”

“MDC founder George Autry used to say education is the antidote to poverty—smart people refuse to be poor,” said Leslie Boney, director of the Institute for Emerging Issues. “Obviously it’s not quite that easy, and there are many jobs that pay well with lower levels of education. But on average, the numbers are undeniable: if you learn more, you earn more.”

According to the RTI report, 52 percent of those who had not yet entered post-secondary education had been unemployed for at least one month and 47 percent had been forced to increase their working hours to cover their household expenses. One in five carries a balance on their credit card and one in four have had to regularly ask for financial support from family members. Sixty percent worry about earning enough money to pay for regular expenses.

These challenges often compound with time.

“Success in postsecondary education can become more difficult when you delay entry into a college or trade program,” said Walton Radford. Yet the ninth graders included in the study rarely cited academic reasons as a factor for not enrolling in a post-secondary program.

Only nine percent of those that did not pursue post-secondary education—approximately 500 individuals—indicated that academic reasons were a factor in their decision. Forty-two percent indicated that financial reasons were a factor, and 43 percent indicated personal or family reasons were a factor in their decision to forego a post-secondary education or credential.

“These data will help policymakers, researchers, and practitioners gain clarity on high school students’ diverse trajectories, paving the way to making more informed decisions on how to serve young people better,” said Dan Pratt, the project director for the study.

Historically, organizations and researchers have been focused on college access and preparedness or college completion, said Walton Radford.

“There is a population of students, 28 percent, that is not going, so what can we do to better serve this population,” asks Walton Radford. Her answer? Identifying programs to better serve this population of America’s future workforce.

This research demonstrates the importance of understanding workforce pathways, said Walton Radford. RTI’s Center for Post-secondary Education is pursuing this work, and hopes that by doing so policymakers, educators, foundations and grant makers, community organizations, and students and citizens will learn more about education and workforce transitions and their impact on economic outcomes, said Walton Radford.

Regions that use education, workforce, and mobility data to shape policy and design programs will be most suited to capitalize on future economic development opportunities. One of the primary components of the relevant selection criteria for Amazon’s HQ2 is focused on a region’s educational attainment and post-secondary opportunities. Communities that focus on enhancing economic mobility now are primed to reap significant benefits.

“We need this type of data,” said Walton Radford, “to shape the economic development programs in our regions.”