Right now the podcast business is almost all about the ads. Are we on the cusp of a big change? Are subscription models going to change podcasting as we know it today?

Tuesday is the start of a big test. It’s the launch of Luminary, a podcasting startup that wants people to pay $7.99 a month for exclusive shows. In three words, it’s “Netflix for podcasts.” Bold-faced names like Trevor Noah, Lena Dunham, Leon Neyfakh, and Hannibal Buress are on board. So are lots of financiers. Luminary “has raised $100 million in venture capital over two rounds since the spring of 2018,” Digiday’s Max Willens wrote.

On Tuesday the company “will join Stitcher Premium as the only two large subscription services featuring podcasts, and it hopes to be a friend to everybody in the ecosystem.” For instance, both the free and paid versions of the app promise access to “hundreds of thousands of shows you already listen to and love.” The paid version adds access to “40+ Luminary Originals coming this year.” But there’s a problem…

Here’s the hard part

Today’s “Podcast Wars” headline was inspired by The Verge’s Ashley Carman. On Monday she reported that “the industry hasn’t accepted Luminary or its impending launch. When it rolls out to the public on iOS, Android, and the web, Luminary’s podcast app will be missing some of the industry’s biggest shows, including The New York Times’ The Daily and Gimlet Media shows like Reply All and Homecoming.” Spotify recently acquired Gimlet Media.

“By withholding their shows, the Times and Spotify are setting Luminary up to fail — or at least struggle to get off on the right foot with users,” Carman wrote. “It certainly seems like the first shot fired in the inevitable premium podcast war and could destabilize one of the first buzzy, well-funded entrants before it can make a dent in the industry. The decisions that happen now will reshape the way podcasts are distributed in the future.” Read on…

Consultant Bill Rosenblatt: “Unlike music, people have never expected to pay for podcasts…”

Probably not a coincidence: SiriusXM came out with a streaming-only plan on Monday…