RALEIGH – The Triangle is already primed and structured to capitalize on new opportunities in the post-pandemic economy, says author professor Richard Florida, best known internationally as a thought leader on development and author of “The Creative Class.”

Welcome to the rise of  “15-minute neighborhoods.”

The emerging trend is on the decentralization of business districts in favor of a “re-envisioning” of what he termed neighborhood center districts with vibrant work-and-play hubs.

“The idea of a 15-minute neighborhood, or what I like to call a complete community, is a community where more-or-less you could do all of your daily activities,” Florida told an econimic development conference put on Tuesday by the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce. “This has been the real reset in the pandemic, is that more and more people realize they want that.”

The Triangle already has “clustered neighborhoods with vibrant live-work-play centers,” he added.

Downtown Raleigh, Downtown Durham, Raleigh’s North Hills and the emerging Hub RTP in Research Triangle Park fit his concept in many ways, to name a few.

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“You have a particular competitive advantage for competing for families,” Florida added.

While Florida did not mention recent economic developments in the area in the pre-recorded discusses with Chamber CEO Adrienne Cole, the region is winning many of them – from a new $1 billion Apple campus to a new Google engineering hub and numerous life science expansions.

Looking ahead, the regions that will be most successful in the future and capitalizing on subtle, nuanced shifts in the post-pandemic economy are going to be ones where the companies present will also support the indirect service-sector jobs created by the economic growth of the region, Florida added.

Regions must also be able to support individuals working in the service sector who generate enough income to afford to live within the region, and within the area’s 15-minute neighborhoods, argued Florida. Otherwise, these workers will be pushed further and farther from these vibrant communities, resulting in less diversity, more income and wealth disparity, and more inequity.

Diversity and equality are emerging as advantages for communities, Florida added, noting that based on anecdotal information young people like living in communities of different people.

“Being intentional around talent, being intentional around place making, being intentional about fostering equitable communities, those are the opportunities,” said Florida.

‘Office towers aren’t filling’

COVID-19 did force one significant change: How we work. And there’s fallout from that.

“We’ve had a giant, forced experiment in remote work, and what did we find,” asked Florida. “We know that we kind of like to go to the office occasionally, but not every day, 9-5.  Especially if we’re doing mental work, writing work, thinking work, we can be very effective at home.”

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What that will mean is that businesses may continue to invest in office locations, but that workers won’t be required to be present each day or all day. “A big change is going to be in our central business districts,” said Florida.  “I think of these as factories for information processing.”

“The office towers aren’t filling,” said Florida, and that’s particularly true right now for cities with central business districts that are typically and traditionally accessed by public transit.  “People aren’t scared of the elevator, they’re scared of the train or transit to get there.”

Pandemic misconceptions

Florida also addressed some issues such as reports of a mass exodus from urban centers due to COVID-19.

The shifts in the economy that have occurred since the beginning of 2020 are not as dramatic or drastic or dire as some predicted early in the global spread of the coronavirus, Florida said. Rather, the shifts that we’re seeing in the economy are more subtle and more nuanced.

Despite commentary describing the fleeing of people and families from larger urban areas, such as New York City, to smaller suburban or exurban communities as widespread and permanent, Florida argued differently.  Two groups of people were largely responsible for geographic transitions, he noted.

According to Florida, one group that moved away from urban cities were students, whose parents invited them to return to their more suburban or rural homes.

“The pandemic accelerated family formation moves,” said Florida.  “These moves that would have taken over one, two, three, or five years, well, they really happened in one or two months.”

Young people will return to cities following the pandemic if history holds, he added.  That’s what was observed after other global pandemics, Florida noted, and given the importance of talent markets in these cities as well as the social opportunities that young people seek, cities will remain important in the future economy.

“The bigger trend is not where we live, but where we work,” said Florida.  So while the regions that were growing prior to the pandemic, which includes New York, Boston, and the Research Triangle, “will not die, rather, they will probably accelerate.”

What is changing is how and where people work. Historically, most people were limited in choosing where to live based on where they could work, and that relied on some form of transit, whether by train, subway, or automobile, said Florida.  “The rise of remote work has stretched the boundaries of metropolitan areas, and one of the things that we’re seeing is emerging interest in beautiful rural areas outside of major metropolitan areas,” he added.

Florida expects top cities will continue to attract people, but for that attraction to be spread out to their more exurban, fringe areas, not just in the suburbs.  Meanwhile, said Florida, “we’re going to see some of what Steve Case calls the Rise of the Rest, but I don’t think it’s going to be infinite.”

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